跨境电商对华商网络贸易的效应分析

在就跨境电商对华商网络贸易所具有的替代效应与互补效应进行理论分析的基础上，利用古诺模型分析市场均衡的结果及贸易效应，采用面板数据实证检验跨境电商对华商网络贸易的影响，结果表明跨境电商对华商网络贸易的互补效应大于替代效应：一方面，由于华商网络对出口贸易的影响尤为显著，而跨境电商平台又以出口贸易为主，从而跨境电商对华商网络出口贸易的影响较大；另一方面，跨境电商平台偏向于差异化产品贸易，因而跨境电商对差异化产品的华商网络贸易有着较大影响。也就是说，跨境电商对华商网络贸易的互补效应在出口贸易与差异化产品贸易上表现得尤为显著。     

How the Internet Promotes China's Exports: A Firm‐level Perspective

The development of information and communications technology (ICT), particularly the Internet, has reduced trade costs. However, it remains unclear whether these reduced costs are reflected in the “extensive margins” of firms’ exports (which refer to the probability of firms exporting) or the “intensive margins” (which refer to the value of firms’ export). To test this, we used the concepts of information cost and binary margins, an augmented trade model of firm heterogeneity, a two‐stage Heckman estimation, and data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey of Chinese firms in 2012. The results revealed that reduced trade costs from the use of ICT were positively related to extensive margins but that the connection with intensive margins was not significant. The results lead to the conclusion that reduced information costs related to a firm's exporting behavior were primarily reflected in variable trade costs. This study offers theoretical and empirical evidence for China's policies towards the Internet, which are relevant for the export of manufactured goods. The government should encourage the use of ICT to enhance firms’ export opportunities while facing current trade policy uncertainty.     

Heterogeneity of Funds and Information Disclosure: Evidence

Institutional investors, especially public funds, play an important role in governing listed firms as they grow in Chinese stock markets. We classify each fund as “dedicated,” “transient,” or “mixed,” according to the concentration, turnover, and profit sensitivity of their stock holdings. We find that listed firms with more shares held by dedicated funds have a higher disclosure quality, while firms with more shares held by transient funds have a lower disclosure quality. These findings are consistent in different model settings. In addition, dedicated funds improve the disclosure quality of non-state-owned enterprises more than state-owned enterprises. Dedicated funds can benefit from the lower debt-financing cost and higher stock liquidity of firms with better disclosure quality.     

管理层权力与或有事项信息披露——基于环境不确定性的调节效应研究

基于2003—2016年我国A股上市公司的经验数据，以企业表内列报的预计负债金额与表外附注中披露的或有事项频数为考察对象，实证检验了管理层权力对或有事项信息披露的影响。研究发现，管理层权力与表内列报的或有事项信息显著负相关，而与表外披露的或有事项信息显著正相关；进一步发现，随着环境不确定性的增加，管理层权力对企业表内预计负债列报的负向影响显著增强，而对表外或有事项披露的正向影响明显减弱。在当前外部环境瞬息万变、内部治理机制弱化的背景下，管理层可能会利用其控制权操控或有事项信息的披露方式，自我服务偏好明显。     

Forecasting UK consumer price inflation using inflation forecasts

The inflation rate is a key economic indicator for which forecasters are constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of predictions, so as to enable better macroeconomic decision making. Presented in this paper is a novel approach which seeks to exploit auxiliary information contained within inflation forecasts for developing a new and improved forecast for inflation by modeling with Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). Unlike other forecast combination techniques, the key feature of the proposed approach is its use of forecasts, i.e. data into the future, within the modeling process and extracting auxiliary information for generating a new and improved forecast. We consider real data on consumer price inflation in UK, obtained via the Office for National Statistics. A variety of parametric and nonparametric models are then used to generate univariate forecasts of inflation. Thereafter, the best univariate forecast is considered as auxiliary information within the MSSA model alongside historical data for UK consumer price inflation, and a new multivariate forecast is generated. We find compelling evidence which shows the benefits of the proposed approach at generating more accurate medium to long term inflation forecasts for UK in relation to the competing models. Finally, through the discussion, we also consider Google Trends forecasts for inflation within the proposed framework.     

Information technology developments of logistics service providers in Hungary

The objective of this research is to examine the role of sector-specific information technology (IT) developments and their significance in terms of the revenue and earnings before tax of Logistics Service Providers (LSPs), as well as the impact of these developments on the flexibility and integration of LSPs. A survey questionnaire was conducted with 284 LSPs participants. The data provided by the 51 responding enterprises provided a representative sample for the analysis of the sample population and the drawing of general and relevant conclusions related to basic population. It can be concluded that their revenue, earnings before tax and degree of integration into the supply chain depend on the sector-specific IT developments carried out by the given enterprise. IT investments will remain important in the future and the introduction and leveraging the best technologies may yield competitive advantages and higher financial rewards for LSPs.     

信息技术产业创新发展的演化复杂路径研究

信息技术产业创新发展的研究具有现实意义。通过文献研究建立信息技术产业创新演化复杂系统研究框架，汇总认知角度的创新层次、产业演化以及演化研究工具和方法等相关研究情况，认为应重视动态、演化和复杂系统的特点，政府介入推动自组织网络的高效率演化和发展，促进网络化学习，避免低端依赖，促进创新效率。创新系统研究应包含认知领域的相关成果，利用演化计算和机器学习方法构建模型，提升对真实行为的模拟仿真和解释能力。     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S.

We study unconventional policy shocks and information shocks associated with central bank announcements in the U.S. While unconventional policy shocks capture the direct influence of announced monetary policy actions, information shocks are associated with central bank information conveyed with the announcement. To disentangle these two types of shocks, we impose sign restrictions on high frequency changes in interest rates and stock prices around announcements. We find that information shocks lead to persistent declines in the 10-year government bond yield, whereas the actual unconventional policy shock induces only small interest rate responses. We also find that expansionary output effects of unconventional monetary policy are to some extent counteracted by the information shock.     

Valuing Initial Public Offerings Using Article 11 Pro Forma Financial Information in the Prospectus*

We investigate whether Article 11 pro forma financial information assists investors in valuing IPOs. While the SEC expects it to be helpful in assisting investment decisions, Article 11 pro forma financial information is based on registrants' understanding and assumptions, and registrants can exercise their own judgment when preparing pro forma financial statements. It is therefore an empirical question whether the information contained in pro forma financial statements is useful to investors. We examine the association between pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity and the IPO offer value and find asymmetric results. While positive pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity are positively associated with the IPO offer value, negative pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity are negatively associated with the IPO offer value, suggesting that negative pro forma adjustments are priced as growth opportunities. Additional analyses reveal that the association between pro forma adjustments of book value of equity and the IPO offer value varies across different time periods and industries and that pro forma adjustments of book value of equity are initially mispriced by investors. In contrast, we do not find similar results for pro forma adjustments of earnings. Further empirical tests show that the asymmetric results of mispricing of pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity may be explained by the requirements of Article 11 of Regulation S‐X for pro forma adjustments dictating that adjustments to earnings reflect only recurring items while adjustments to book value reflect both recurring and nonrecurring items.